Τετάρτη, 2 Νοεμβρίου 2016
Evidence from both the 2016 BREXIT referendum (“Leave” victory) and the 2015 Greek January 2015 elections (Alexis Tsipras victory) & July 2015 referendum (“No” victory), and from numerous other occasions as well, suggests that is highly unlikely to win an election using a rhetoric of fear with regards to your opponent, thus I won’t be surprised if the unthinkable, which is someone like Donald Trump being elected President of the United States, actually happen next Tuesday.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign main argument is that Trump is crazy, Trump is dangerous, Trump does not suffice for being President of the strongest nation on Earth. But people never vote for avoiding something or someone. People vote for something positive. People vote for something to be done by someone, not for something, or someone, to be avoided.
In that sense, I do think that the Hillary Clinton campaign has followed a notoriously mistaken strategy. Instead of trying to convince voters why the should vote for Hillary, they tried to convince them why the should not vote for Donald Trump.
It just could not be worse.
That said, and again based on the BREXIT and Tsipras experience, I also don’t think that Donald Trump as a President of the US will be so radical as he has been suggesting as a candidate. Authority brings responsibility, even with people like Donald Trump. I also have trust in and respect for the US institutions as well as in Trump’s entrepreneurial instinct.
In my opinion, chances are that in case Donald Trump is the next US President — which for me will be anything but a positive development, he finally won’t do anything insane — at least not more insane than what George W. Bush actually did as President of the US.
Concluding, few (obvious, hopefully) disclaimers:
- I am not a US citizen and I don’t vote to the US elections.
- I got super excited with Bernie Sanders candidacy and, in case I was able to vote, I would definitely vote for Hillary Clinton.